Empires & Engines Robot Race Tracker
September 2026 edition Subscribe

China is out-building. America is out-thinking.

The humanoid robot race, scored every month. Units shipped, parts that can be cut off, and the calls we're willing to be graded on. The long war goes to whoever can keep producing.

China50
United States50
Race score out of 100, balanced lens. Midline is a dead heat.Change the lens
97%

China's share of global humanoid shipments, first half of 2026

~60k

Humanoids expected to ship worldwide in 2026, up from roughly 13–17k in 2025

2.7×

Western unit cost vs. Chinese bill of materials (~$95k vs ~$35k)

3

Chokepoints at critical this month

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Monthly shipments

Humanoid robots delivered to customers each month, by maker's home country. China ships most of the world's humanoids; the US ships the most expensive ones.

Tap or hover a month for the numbers.

Monthly figures split reported half-year totals by month using order, holiday and production-ramp patterns. July and August are preliminary and get revised when half-year reports land.

US vs China scorecard

Ten things that decide who wins. Who's ahead depends on which race you think this is: a production war or an intelligence war. Pick a lens and watch the headline score move.

DimensionShare of advantage (China | US)LeaderGrade

Chokepoint alerts

The parts and policies either side could lose access to. A humanoid is only as sovereign as its least available component.

The forecast ladder

Milestones in the order we expect them, each with our probability. We move rungs when the evidence moves and show the change, so you can grade us.

Company leaderboard

Who is actually shipping. Tap a column to sort.

Where it stands

"n/d" means the company hasn't disclosed a number we trust. We don't print self-reported cumulative totals that filings don't back up.

Signals this cycle

The events that moved a score, a chokepoint or a rung.

    Mankind needs robots.

    Every empire that lasted won a war of attrition: more output, for longer, from a supply chain the other side couldn't break. Rome had roads, Britain had coal and steam, America had Detroit in 1942.

    This race runs on the same rule. When people are both your highest cost and your scarcest resource, the side that turns capital into tireless labor fastest pulls ahead, in factories, logistics and, as Ukraine's drone war shows, on the battlefield.

    That's why this tracker weighs production as heavily as intelligence. Better robots matter. Robots that keep shipping when the other side cuts off your magnets matter more.

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    For journalists

    Free to cite with attribution. Every section has its own link, and the data behind the chart downloads as CSV.

    Cite the tracker

    Quotable this month

    • Chinese makers shipped about 97% of the world's humanoid robots in the first half of 2026.
    • A Western humanoid costs roughly 2.7 times a Chinese one to build.
    • On an attrition lens, China leads the race 72 to 28. On a technology lens, the US leads 55 to 45.

    Interviews, charts at print resolution, or a data pull for your story: contact the desk.

    Engine Room

    The paid tier for operators, investors and analysts who need the numbers underneath the headline. Founding members lock their price for life.

    Race Report

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    • Monthly tracker update by email
    • Headline shipments, scorecard, chokepoints
    • Forecast ladder with rung changes
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    Engine Room

    $19 /month, founding rate
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    War Room

    $2,500 /year per seat
    • Everything in Engine Room
    • Raw data export and API access
    • Quarterly bottom-up component forecasts
    • Analyst call on request
    Supplier exposure mapWhich humanoid makers depend on which reducer, magnet and chip suppliers.
    Cost-down curveBill of materials by component, tracked quarterly for 12 platforms.
    Deployment ledgerVerified paid deployments by site, task and hours worked.
    Policy radarExport controls, procurement bans and subsidies across the US, China, EU, Japan and Korea.

    Method and sources

    How we score

    Each scorecard dimension splits 100 points between China and the US based on the best available evidence. The race score is a weighted average. Balanced weights all ten equally. Attrition doubles production, cost, industrial base and components. Tech doubles models, compute and talent.

    Evidence grades

    • A — company filings, customs data or two independent trackers agree
    • B — one reputable analyst tracker or consistent company disclosures
    • C — Empires & Engines estimate from partial data; treat as directional

    Sources we lean on

    Omdia and Counterpoint humanoid shipment trackers; half-year vendor shipment reports; International Federation of Robotics installation data; Morgan Stanley and Bank of America humanoid cost and volume research; company announcements and filings; US congressional records.

    Corrections

    When we revise a number or move a forecast rung, the change is logged in the next Race Report with the old and new value. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.